海角破解版

Analysis

I grew up in Lakewood, but many of my friends lived farther west, in Rocky River, Bay Village and Westlake. We were teenagers during the George W. Bush years, and I always thought of these towns as more conservative-leaning places.

For a time, they were. Bush won all three of those West Shore suburbs in 2004.

But 2020 is different. Joe Biden, now the president-elect, didn鈥檛 just win Bay and River; he won every precinct, and he carried Westlake, too. Judging by Biden鈥檚 performance in suburbs around the country, it appears that the Bays, Rivers and Westlakes of America made a similar decision.

Democratic activists in the West Shore suburbs  have told me Hillary Clinton鈥檚 2016 defeat energized them. They banded together on social media, branded themselves the 鈥淏ay Village Nasty Women鈥� and  canvassed their neighborhoods.

That work appears to have paid off. Democratic candidate Monique Smith walked away from Election Night with a narrow lead over Republican State Rep. Dave Greenspan. We鈥檒l see later this month whether provisional ballots and outstanding absentees can close that gap.

If Smith鈥檚 advantage holds, it will be one of the few blue victories on Ohio鈥檚 reddening map.

But that鈥檚 only part of the story. South of I-480, the suburbs shifted in the other direction. Look at Parma. Twenty-four years ago, Bill Clinton鈥檚 Ohio campaign manager, Tony Cuda,   Parma was 鈥渢he swingingest swing city in Ohio.鈥�

This year, Parma continued its swing toward Donald Trump, delivering the president a 5-point victory in a city that picked Obama by double digits twice.

Mayor Tim DeGeeter, an early Biden endorser,  told me his constituents have been labeled 鈥淩eagan Democrats.鈥� From the sound of his voice, I couldn鈥檛 help but think he鈥檇 done this interview a few too many times before.

Today, they may have a different label: Trump Republicans.

Patty Gascoyne, a Parma Republican, foretold this about Trump in a pre-election interview with me: 鈥淚 think we鈥檙e going to see a bit more oomph than you hear about in the media. That鈥檚 my prediction.鈥� With unofficial Ohio election results now in front of us, I think she had a point. 

Even so, Parma鈥檚 local leadership is flush with Democrats. Democratic state Rep. Jeff Crossman, whose district includes Parma, fended off Republican challenger Kevin Kussmaul. And the 鈥淧arma Democrats鈥� are still said to wield plenty of power within the Cuyahoga County party.

Likewise, Republicans are holding down jobs as mayors in Bay Village, Rocky River and Westlake.

Some pundits have proposed replacing the political clich茅 鈥渁ll politics is local鈥� with its opposite, 鈥渁ll politics is national.鈥� That may not be the reality on the ground in Northeast Ohio yet. Local incumbents are hard to topple. But if Trump maintains post-presidency political sway, I wouldn鈥檛 be surprised if that starts to change.

Nick Castele鈥檚 鈥淒oor To Door鈥� column will appear monthly in Noon(ish) and online at ideastream.org.